Expected Score Calculator
Calculate win probability and expected rating changes
Enter Ratings
Example Matchups
Understanding Expected Score
Expected Score: The statistical probability of scoring points (1 for win, 0.5 for draw, 0 for loss) based on rating difference.
Rating Difference Impact:
- • 0 points difference = 50% expected score
- • 100 points higher = 64% expected score
- • 200 points higher = 76% expected score
- • 400 points higher = 91% expected score
Note: Draw probabilities are estimates. Actual draw rates vary based on playing style, time control, and tournament situation.